The Veepstakes

If you look where the Republican candidates won, it was pretty much a regional not nationwide primary. McCain won were you’d expect the Lib to win – the northeast and left coast. To be fair McCain took his home state of AZ albeit with a bit of trouble and the purple state of MO. Huckabee colluded with McCain to rip off WV from the most popular candidate there but other wise was restricted to southern states. Romney took his home state of MA but was otherwise relegated to the upper west and mid west states.

So given that dynamic who are the veep possibilities?

For McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani are probably thinking they are owed something. But neither will bring anything to the ticket that isn’t already there. Giuliani, like McCain, is just another Lib Republican. Rudy will be promised Sec Homeland Security or AG if can deliver something in the northeast and/or Fl in the general. Huckabee’s strength is all in the south. That strength is off-set by the Dem’s weakness in the south. The Dem’s weakness will be compounded with a woman or black man on the ticket. The exact same identity politics that have made Obama and Clinton will further destroy Democrats in the south. So sorry Huck, McCain won’t need you once the nomination is wrapped up. Southern voters will have no place to go but McCain. McCain’s distaste for Romney rules Mitt out of the veepstakes, and let’s face it, the Republican strong hold in the south ain’t crazy about Mormons. Romney ran third in nearly all of the southern states. Romney will work hard for the Rep ticket, might be promised Sec Commerce or Treasury; probably turn it down and go on to make another 800 million dollars in the private sector for another run 2012.

So who then? A Gov or former Gov from someplace where it will help the Electoral vote. In addition, a Gov will give McCain an executive experience lift that he currently lacks and Govs are well vetted proven campaigners. So from the top: 1) Tom Ridge former Gov of PA and Sec of Homeland Security. Ridge could put PA in play and off-set a Dem move on OH or IN. 2) Gov Pawlenty of MN. MN is a purple state that Reps could strip away by putting Pawlenty on the under card. 3) Gov Blunt in MO for the same reason. 4) Long shot, Gov Christ in FL. FL went pretty well for Bush in 2004 so Reps may not need a push there this year.

On the Dem side, the dream ticket of Clinton/Obama is out. Identity politics will dictate that whoever wins, will be forced to bring a white male on the under card. Clinton is in the worst shape. For the Shrillda Beast, the veep nominee is going to have to agree to be the vice-Vice President to Bill. Or is the real VP going to be Shrill? She needs a white male which is going to PO the black vote. She will pick Sen Bahy of IN or what makes more sense is Gov Strickland of OH. There’s a myth that the Shrillda will then need to shore up black vote. That’s only half true. She really only needs to shore up the black vote in the battleground states. The Clintons being Clintons could care less about blacks in states they have no chance of carrying – read the south. Look for Bill to be deployed to every black church in every battleground state the day after the nomination is secure.

For Obama the calculation is about the same. He could bring the Shrillda Beast aboard to gain the Clinton machine, war room and to do the nasty smear work that Obama may not have the stomach for.

I’m off for a couple of days. Cruise the archive. See you Mon.