Thursday, December 06, 2007

NIE four years late; who knows what's happening in Iran now

The wise heads over at MSNBC - yes, I’m ashamed to say that I’ve doubled their viewership by looking in occasionally - are still talking about -- with “Bush is a liar” being the most overworked meme -- this latest NIE report.

Let’s put this NIE thing into perspective. First, since the US congress decided to neuter our intell agencies in the 70s, they have not been known for accuracy or effectiveness. Second, strategic intell is a very inexact science/art. Imagine you’re trying to learn what nation states want most to keep you from learning. They will hide it, lie about it and provide misinformation about it. Yet somehow Americans have this “24” perception of an all knowing US intell system. Last, what bits of information we are able to gather is then filtered through government bureaucrats - some with their own political agendas.

Taken as whole, picking the weekly winners in this year’s college football season is a more exact science than strategic intell.

Now we learn that an NIE put together in 2007 reports that Iran stopped its CLANDESTINE nuclear program in 2003. Lemesee, if you are willing to accept what the report says, 3 from 7 would be a four year lag in what our intell boys are able to figure out about Iran’s nuclear program.

But wait, a 2005 report said “with high confidence” that Iran was aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons. That is a mere two years before the 2007 report and two years after the 2007 report said “with moderate to high confidence” that Iran had ceased its CLANDESTINE nuclear program.

Then there’s what’s in the report that the Dems and the lemmings in the MSM want us to ignore. Iran had a CLANDESTINE nuclear program, continues to enrich uranium and develop long range missiles.

So we have conflicting intell estimates that are at best four years behind the power curve. We have Iran enriching uranium, developing long range missiles and nut job president who openly advocates the nuclear destruction of Israel.
Yes this would be the perfect time to accept the latest report at face value and grant Iran Most Favorable Nation status. Four years after Iran drops a bomb on the Knesset the intell boys will predict “with moderate to high confidence” that Iran has once again started up its CLANDESTINE nuclear program, dormant since 2003, and once again poses a threat to Israel.

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